US Orders Down 40%, Factories May Close Early

The "three engines" of the economy are now all very tired.

In November, the investment growth rate was lower than expected, consumption is still in negative growth, and exports are also facing the downturn of global market demand.

The situation is very severe!

According to the latest data provided by the American financial website CNBC, the orders for China's manufacturing industry in the United States have been reduced by 40%.

The Global Logistics Group said: Due to the decline in market demand, the container freight from Asia continues to decline, and the container freight volume from China to the United States has decreased by more than 20%.

The CEO of the Global Logistics Group believes that in the case of declining market orders, China's foreign trade factories will stop work two weeks earlier than in previous years, and many factories are expected to go on vacation at the beginning of January.

At the same time, the orders after the Spring Festival also have a lot of uncertainty.

The foreign trade import and export data for November has been released.

According to the dollar valuation, China's export volume reached 296 billion US dollars in November, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%, and imports decreased by more than 10%.

The total value of imports and exports decreased by 9.5% year-on-year.

Among them, exports to the United States decreased by 25% year-on-year, and exports to Europe decreased by 11% year-on-year.

Therefore, we can see that some provinces along the coast have chartered planes to go abroad to grab orders recently.

The market demand has shrunk, and orders will not come to the door on their own, they can only be fought for by themselves.

Why has the export suddenly decreased?

Is it really just the decline of global market demand?

In fact, the reasons are multifaceted.

The United States has always advocated the return of manufacturing industry with great strength, and at the same time, it has joined Europe to build a new supply chain and a large market, coupled with India and Vietnam's competition for some international orders, all aspects have caused an impact.

First, under the background of global inflation, the market demand has declined.

Since the outbreak of the epidemic, monetary stimulus has led to high inflation in various countries, and prices have continued to rise.

This year, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates continuously, and the European Central Bank is also following the United States to raise interest rates.

It is an undeniable fact that the global economy will shrink next year, and the market demand has declined, and the order volume has plummeted.

The second is the return of the manufacturing industry in the United States.

Since 2008, the United States has proposed the return of the manufacturing industry.

Due to the high cost of labor, there are not many enterprises returning, but with the increase of subsidies, there are still some manufacturing enterprises returning to the United States every year.

Moreover, the United States hopes to reduce its dependence on China's supply chain and increase cooperation with Europe to form an independent global supply chain.

Data shows that in September this year, Germany's exports to the United States increased by 50% year-on-year, and the United States' imports from Europe grew rapidly.

In addition, markets such as India and Vietnam are also competing for more industrial transfers.

Recently, it was reported that Apple intends to transfer its production line in China to India or Vietnam.

Before this, Apple has set up factories and production lines in the Indian and Vietnamese markets, but most of the production lines are still in the Chinese market.

Due to the changes in various factors, Apple has begun to pay attention to "concentration risk".

The media reported that Apple may transfer some iPad production lines to India, but Apple has not yet made a specific plan and still says it will not give up the Chinese market.

Therefore, under the premise of shrinking global market demand, the order volume is limited, and it is more necessary to actively grab orders.

On the one hand, it is the impact of the supply chain, and the investment and trade between Europe and the United States has increased; on the other hand, markets such as India and Vietnam are also competing for international orders.

Therefore, the situation faced by exports next year is very severe.

In addition to exports, next year we need to look at investment and consumption to drive.

Investment in manufacturing, high-tech industries, infrastructure, and other investments are still the mainstay.

Real estate investment is an important highlight next year.

At present, the support for real estate has been greatly increased, but what real estate needs is "stability", which is of great significance to local finance, risk resolution, employment, and other aspects.

In terms of consumption, the main thing is to improve residents' income, which requires providing more employment opportunities, and also needs to increase support for small and medium-sized enterprises, reduce taxes and fees, provide financial support, and at the same time issue consumption coupons to residents.

The possibility of directly giving money is not very high, and the improvement of consumption needs a process.