A-Shares: Major Positives Hit, Big Money Shifting Attitude

I was truly shocked by today's market.

Before the market opened, I was stunned by two major positive news: First, the central bank is preparing to cut the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points, providing the financial market with one trillion in liquidity.

Second, the existing housing loan interest rates are being reduced, with an average decrease of 0.5 percentage points.

This is undoubtedly throwing money at the market, and the short-term stimulus effect is self-evident.

Faced with this sudden major positive news, many investors can't help but feel excited, which makes me very conflicted, as I didn't anticipate this before the market opened.

Although I believe that the probability of the market pulling back downward today is relatively high, when the major positive news comes out, one has to admit defeat.

The market will definitely react in the short term, but how much it will react is uncertain.

The most worrying aspect is still the attitude of institutional funds.

Before the market opened, I repeatedly reminded that if there is a significant gap-up, do not chase.

It's not too late to enter when it falls.

From my understanding, one should run after a short-term surge, and you can hold stocks firmly in the medium term.

I don't have much hope for the market before the holiday.

However, the market performance after the opening once again shocked me.

Although the index also opened significantly higher and then continued to rise, with more than 4,600 stocks going up at once, the trading volume only increased by less than 20 billion during this process, and it was reduced by 23.6 billion yesterday.

Obviously, the increase of less than 20 billion is too small, and no one is willing to chase the rise.

A short-term pullback is inevitable.

The most critical point is that institutional funds only flowed in less than 1 billion in the morning, which is obviously not right.

Without the interest of institutional funds, the enthusiasm of retail investors cannot last for a long time.

Soon, institutional funds began to flow out, and the amount continued to increase.

But soon the market saw a significant increase in trading volume, which once again pulled the market up.

Faced with the performance of the market and institutional funds, I really can't understand: First, the recent good news continues, starting with the Federal Reserve's unexpected interest rate cut, followed by the significant appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, and then the reduction of reverse repo rates.

Until today's morning's several major good news, so many good news came out in a dense manner, why is the market performance lukewarm, without any momentum.

Why can't there be a big volume long Yang line, a counterattack of individual stocks.

Second, what kind of good news does this market need to reverse the downward trend, how to change the attitude of institutional funds, to actively do more.

Third, let me clearly realize that relying on stimulus policies can only bring short-term effects, and cannot fundamentally change the market, just like the real estate market, there are too many good news policies, but it still cannot change the downward trend of the real estate industry.

The key still lies in the supply and demand relationship.

Stocks are the same, in addition to the supply and demand relationship, the key also lies in the overall quality of listed companies.

Only when the trend of economic recovery is further strengthened, and the profitability of enterprises increases, can the attitude of institutions change.

This requires more data to change the market's pessimistic expectations.

I didn't expect that after just complaining, the good news really played a role.

The market has seen a big rise, and I was solidly slapped in the face today.

As long as the market can rise sharply, I naturally feel happy to be slapped in the face.

Today's morning market reaction can also be said to be beyond expectation, and it can also be said to be in line with expectation.

Why do you say that?

It's beyond expectation because the heavy good news is too sudden, but such a big good news comes to attack, and the short-term market does not have a strong reaction, which is absolutely beyond expectation.

The so-called in line with expectation is because the market performance yesterday was disappointing, does the market have no certain expectation for today's heavy good news, or is the confidentiality work too good, and there is no news in advance for the big funds?

In fact, there are too many smart funds in this market.

If you think that today's big good news will bring a big rise in the market, the big funds will definitely be buried in advance yesterday.

However, from the flat trend of the market yesterday, it can be seen that the big funds are not very interested in the good news that may be introduced today, so it's not surprising that it has become like this today.

Of course, it soon pulled up again, and it can only be said that the market pursues certainty, and it will only react when the good news is really introduced.

Do you still remember the market performance last Thursday?

It was clearly expected that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in the early morning of Thursday, but the market performance on Wednesday was also calm.

If the expectation of the good news brought by the interest rate cut to the market is very strong, the market will rise sharply in advance on Wednesday.

From the flat performance on Wednesday, it can be expected that the market is not very interested in the interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

In fact, although it rose on Thursday, it was only a small rise, which cannot change anything.

Combining the market performance of last Thursday and today, the expectation of good news in advance is insufficient, and it only reacts after the good news really lands.

When the dense good news stimulation cannot change the trend of the short-term market, it is enough to prove the weakness of this market.

Today is a very critical day, if it can finally achieve a big rise, I can only change my view of the market.

In the short term, we can only stick to holding shares.

Of course, there is a process from quantitative change to qualitative change.

The market's reaction to good news is not fierce in the short term, and it cannot be denied that the good news has a positive effect on the market.

Don't expect the effect of good news to be immediate, but it must be subtle.

When the good news inside and outside is superimposed, with the passage of time, the market will definitely make a positive response.

At present, it is the time when the good news inside and outside is continuously accumulating.

The market has also experienced a long period of decline, and it is normal for the short-term rebound.

It's just that the strength of the rebound is lacking.

It may be killed again at any time.

As of 11 a.m., the trading volume has increased by more than 80 billion, but there are more than 4,000 stocks in the two cities that have risen, and the increase in trading volume is still insufficient.

Looking at the recent pattern, it is difficult to continue to increase the trading volume significantly in the afternoon.

If the increase in trading volume continues to decrease, it can only be the rhythm of rising and falling in the afternoon.

The key to the short term is the increase in trading volume.

If there is no increase in trading volume, it proves that the funds have no confidence, and the rise will inevitably fall back after the rise.

If the trading volume continues in the afternoon, and the overall trading volume today can exceed 150 billion, the short-term can continue to hold shares, otherwise, the short-term funds will sell at a high price.